-Pratyusha Mukherjee
Since morning, there’s been widespread excitement across West Bengal over the voting percentage in two phases of the election. That was expected. I had an idea earlier that turnout could reach around 90%.
Now the question is – who will be benefited and how?
Political parties will certainly calculate that. Generally, higher turnout is seen as a sign of anti-incumbency or sentiment against the ruling government. However, SIR (Special Intensive Revision) could challenge even that theory to a large extent.
Many people are eager to vote just to ensure that their voting rights remain intact. The way, migrant workers have returned to the state to cast their votes is truly striking. Removal of the names of deceased or relocated voters would also naturally increase the percentage figures. On top of that, voter enthusiasm has significantly boosted the turnout.
In this election, SIR is a turning point. The BJP believes it may benefit them , as a large share of minority votes traditionally goes to Trinamool Congress, and many minority names were reportedly removed. However, due to SIR, many minority voters from other states have returned to West Bengal to vote—this factor is also significant. Some people have voted as a form of protest as well. Overall, it’s a complex equation.
If the trend go in favour of the ruling party, Mamata Banerjee could return to power with a record number of seats. If BJP gains, it could get close to the magic figure needed for a majority. If the Left’s vote share increases, it could make it harder for Narendra Modi and Amit Shah’s ambitions of capturing Bengal.
According to my estimate, out of 294 seats, around 90 are almost certain for the Trinamool Congress.
The BJP could comfortably win 40–45 seats. That leaves about 160–165 seats where the real contest lies. For the BJP to win, it would need a strike rate of around 65%. The Trinamool’s task is relatively easier—they need only about a 40% strike rate to return to power. For the Left and Congress, the main challenge isn’t forming the government but increasing their vote share.
In many ways, this election is like a T20 match. And if it goes into a “super over” situation, then the number of Congress and the Left could become crucial towards formation of the government.
(Views are personal)
Photo credit: Wikipedia
